Linsi, Asean is exactly the reason why the pro-democracy movement in Burma will fail.

Which Asean leader is so comfortable and secure as to launch out and strike a neighboring country?

Indonesia? the Philippines? India? Thailand?

Which one of these would want to take responsibility for the economic repatriation of Burma?

The truth is that none of these countries will lift a finger to help the Burmese.

If they did they would set a precedent for other countries to do the same to them at some time in the future.

Indonesia, the Philippines and to a lesser extent India and Thailand all have varying degrees of human rights abuse allegations and corruption charges leveled against them from time to time.

The Asean way is to talk with a hand over the eyes and ears. Hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil.
Above everything else, make sure no one loses face.

The most reliant on Burma from a trade point is India and China. These two, along with French company Total, are the largest buyers of Burmese energy products.

Which one of these do you think is going to stop buying when they have such a burgeoning demand for the products at home?

Lets have a look at a few other facts. The Burmese military is estimated at 488,000 – the 12th largest in the world.

Assuming that any Asean government had the will to intervene, who could mount such a military campaign?

Indonesia only has a front line armed force of around 318,000, Thailand is marginally smaller at 314,000 while the Philippines is considerably smaller at 106,000.

The logical answer is China, with her standing military force of 2,255,000, or India with 1,325,000 front line troops.

Indonesia's military hardware is ancient and it's military not equipped or trained to be an invading (liberating) force.

Thailand is unlikely to be interested because of her own domestic problems.

India is not a candidate because of her own problems with Pakistan.

China is unlikely to be willing to go to war so close to the Olympics.

The West can jump up and down all it likes. Impose as many sanctions, trade embargoes, travel restrictions that it can think of and none of it will effect the Burmese military junta.

They will remain comfortable living the life they are used to. It's only the people who will suffer, as was the case in Iraq and South Africa when the West did the same thing.

The truth is that there simply isn't any willpower amongst Asean leaders to do anything, or any incentive to upset the status quo.

For these reasons, the pro-democracy push in Burma we are witnessing now will fail. The only questions that remains to be answered is how many people will be killed in the misguided belief that anyone cares enough to help them.