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John wrote :

I often wonder what will be the next big movement in China. We read that there are so many local demonstrations going on, but we have yet to see protesters unite and organize themselves on a national level (and the government certainly do everything to stop them from doing so).

I believe we are bound to see that happen in China during the next decade or two. My guess is that it might be the end of the one-party regime of the Communist party.

So what will ignite the protest? My guess is the steadily increasing income difference between the rich and poor in China (and the urban coast and rural inland as well).

After the Tian'anmen massacre, a lot of China watchers (I was one of them) predicted that the China communist regime will be finish in the next ten years. That din't happended. So, now we have to be more carefull.

I propose to open a new forum on that very large and important subject.

For a change in China, we have to discuss on several topics about what can be the conditions that could provoque the fall of the Communist party.

For me the CCP could loose his power under several conditions.

1) Divisions inside the CCP

2) A large aspiration in the country for a more democratic system

3)His power challenged by some forces :

31) The rise of a bourgeoisie wanting to have a place in the decision making on economy throught polical ways.
32) Everywhere in the world, the young are the sprout of the Revolution. Is it the case in China today ?
33) In China there are a lot of demonstrations. Can they provoque an organized uprising ?
34) Could the rising difference between income has as a result a fight against the CCP¨?
35) Are there others big problems challenging the CCP power, such as ecology ?

I suggest to discuss this points one by one.

Today : Do you think that inside CCP there are strong fightings threathning its power ?. I wait for your point of you and will give you mine<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/07/30 23:09

can a simple female answer?


For me the CCP could loose his power under several conditions.

1) Divisions inside the CCP

2) A large aspiration in the country for a more democratic system

3)His power challenged by some forces :

31) The rise of a bourgeoisie wanting to have a place in the decision making on economy throught polical ways.
32) Everywhere in the world, the young are the sprout of the Revolution. Is it the case in China today ?
33) In China there are a lot of demonstrations. Can they provoque an organized uprising ?
34) Could the rising difference between income has as a result a fight against the CCP¨?
35) Are there others big problems challenging the CCP power, such as ecology ?

I suggest to discuss this points one by one.

Today : Do you think that inside CCP there are strong fightings threathning its power ?. I wait for your point of you and will give you mine.

No, i think there is no divisive threat inside the CCP.Theirs is a strong political system, unified and undivided.

Only a coup d'etat could destroy the power of the CCP.
because the power to change is strongest within the
military force of a country.

(my two cents)

Yes Linsi, a simple female is welcome in this forum

to return to the discussion:

Today : Do you think that inside CCP there are strong fightings threathning its power ?. I wait for your point of you and will give you mine. [color=#008000]

During the Mao area there was a constant opposition between the &quot;reds&quot; and the &quot;experts&quot;. Deng Xiaoping had to fight for,step by step, put aside the conservatives (maoists)such as Deng Liqun or Chen Yun.

Today there is no more ideology, so no ideological fighting. In a China only preoccuped by its economy, every one in the Party are generaly thinking the same things (except some ones called the New Left). So, the current fighting are only between personns factions, mainly the &quot;Shanghai faction&quot; of Jiang Zemin and the one of Hu Jintao. The latter, after soon five years in power, is lowly putting his men at the key points and his power will be with no resistance after the XVIIe Congress next automn.

A carateristic of the Chinese power is that a faction in minority is allways represented in the Standing comity of the politburau.

Some journalists rise the risk of the local boss fighting for more freedom from the central authority. It is through, but they cannot go too far and cross the red ligne. The provincial secretary are named by the Center. The fall of the boss of Shanghai, last september is a good exemple.

Linsi rose the question of the military. In China, the armed forces are not under the command of the governement but directly under the Party through the Central military affairs commission lead by the general secretary of the Party. Around 40 generals belong to the Central comity and two are in the Politburau.

Yes Linsi, a simple female is welcome in this forum

to return to the discussion:

Today : Do you think that inside CCP there are strong fightings threathning its power ?. I wait for your point of you and will give you mine. [color=#008000]

During the Mao area there was a constant opposition between the &quot;reds&quot; and the &quot;experts&quot;. Deng Xiaoping had to fight for,step by step, put aside the conservatives (maoists)such as Deng Liqun or Chen Yun.

Today there is no more ideology, so no ideological fighting. In a China only preoccuped by its economy, every one in the Party are generaly thinking the same things (except some ones called the New Left). So, the current fighting are only between personns factions, mainly the &quot;Shanghai faction&quot; of Jiang Zemin and the one of Hu Jintao. The latter, after soon five years in power, is lowly putting his men at the key points and his power will be with no resistance after the XVIIe Congress next automn.

A carateristic of the Chinese power is that a faction in minority is allways represented in the Standing comity of the politburau.

Some journalists rise the risk of the local boss fighting for more freedom from the central authority. It is through, but they cannot go too far and cross the red ligne. The provincial secretary are named by the Center. The fall of the boss of Shanghai, last september is a good exemple.

Linsi rose the question of the military. In China, the armed forces are not under the command of the governement but directly under the Party through the Central military affairs commission lead by the general secretary of the Party. Around 40 generals belong to the Central comity and two are in the Politburau.

We have to remember that throughout history China had many mass movements such as 'let a hundred flowers bloom and a hundred thoughts contend' or 'the Great leap forward' (not to forget the Great Cultural Revolution or the 1989 Democratic reforms movement. However,most of them ended in diaster.

The ways that things are recognised in China (the barrel of the gun controlled by the Party) there'll be very little chance of military coup d'etat. Remember when Mao died the attempt from the Gang of Four to mobiliss the troops was blocked by that system?

Maybe the development theory may come into play. As the economic situation of the Chinese improved they will start to demand for political liberalisation where their rights of property will be respected by law. As for the CCP, it's just a shell with no essence left. However, in politics 'symbolism' is just as important as 'realism'.

The topic is a querry about a coming possible next movement in China
With local demonstrations and protests that might rise in a national level-

The possibility of ending a one party regime of the communist party

A prediction that the china communist regime will be finished within the next 10 years

Boiling down to losing CCP Power

Provocking factors for the fall of Communist Party.






Hi john,jacques, warazein, and to all,

Before going to details my question foremost is this.

What changes will benefit China?

Does China really need to shed off or at least compromise
their political rule in exchange for capitalism?

One of the excerpts from my shared article about Singapore was:

Democracy of the West would bring Singapore more crimes and more drug addicts etc. Does anyone think it would also happen to China?

Talking about the possible fall of the CCP is tantamount
To introducing Democracy found in the West.

Will it really benefit China? What would be the benefits for
China?

I hope I get answers .

Comparing Singapore with People's Republic of China can be like talking about two different things. Singapore is just a 'Nanny Sate' with the size of not even one province of China. Authoritarian style democracy is possible in Singapore but in this twenty-first century, the information age and globalisation it will be hard for the leaders in China not to open up.
One state, two systems may work for Hong Kong but you have to open up. China now is neither communist nor capitalist but rather compatilist where the two systems come into conflict. No wonder they have to leglislate some form of property rights. Say for an example the development in Beijing took the form that people were moved out of their homes without adequate compasation on the priviso that they onw the land but under the communist system the land their houses were built was owned by the state. With the collusion of the state bureaucrats the developers are finding ways to evict people out of their homes.
For China to open to more political reforms it will take a long time. With the rate of annual growth that China has now it seems that we are witnessing the success of an autocratic regime. We can not expect the Chinese Communist Party to ease its grip on power for some considerable time. They will always use the excuse of the chaotic liberalisation of Russia as an example.
The people in China also have to wake themselves up from the slumber of consumerism and make their demands for political freedom for China to change of the better. It only takes for a few to struggle for the betterment of many. They should never forget the image of a lone man's effort to stop the mighty tanks during the events of 1989.

I opened the discussion by this :

For a change in China, we have to discuss on several topics about what can be the conditions that could provoque the fall of the Communist party.

For me the CCP could loose his power under several conditions.

1) Divisions inside the CCP

2) A large aspiration in the country for a more democratic system

3)His power challenged by some forces :

31) The rise of a bourgeoisie wanting to have a place in the decision making on economy throught polical ways.
32) Everywhere in the world, the young are the sprout of the Revolution. Is it the case in China today ?
33) In China there are a lot of demonstrations. Can they provoque an organized uprising ?
34) Could the rising difference between income has as a result a fight against the CCP¨?
35) Are there others big problems challenging the CCP power, such as ecology ?

So, today we open the second point

Do you think that there is A large aspiration in China for a more democratic system ?

Jacques wrote:

QUOTE:
I opened the discussion by this :

For a change in China, we have to discuss on several topics about what can be the conditions that could provoque the fall of the Communist party.

For me the CCP could loose his power under several conditions.

1) Divisions inside the CCP

2) A large aspiration in the country for a more democratic system

3)His power challenged by some forces :

31) The rise of a bourgeoisie wanting to have a place in the decision making on economy throught polical ways.
32) Everywhere in the world, the young are the sprout of the Revolution. Is it the case in China today ?
33) In China there are a lot of demonstrations. Can they provoque an organized uprising ?
34) Could the rising difference between income has as a result a fight against the CCP¨?
35) Are there others big problems challenging the CCP power, such as ecology ?

So, today we open the second point

Do you think that there is A large aspiration in China for a more democratic system ?

Sorry for the technical failure

So I give my point of view for the question Do you think that there is a strong aspiration for a more democratic system in China

I have to said that I am often fighting with my French China Human Right members on that topic.

We have not to project our democratic values on China. By that, I don't said that Occidental democracy system is not suitable to the &quot;China world&quot;, Taiwan is the best exemple against the &quot;Asia values&quot; of China or Singapore leadears.

I just try to understand that is the majority China feeling.

In fact, just a small minority of Chinese intellectuals are looking for a western style democracy. And when they express their views, they are systemecally put in jail.

The large majority of the Chinese people just want to have a better life and the CCP said to them that it is thank to him that their condition is better now than before and they thrust him.