9 OCTOBER 2007

to see my last post, click on End on the page line

So, general Musharraf has been easily reelected by an restricted numbers of personns. But the problem is what is the next.

His party will probabely lose a lot of seat in the next assembly and he need an arrangement with the Benazir Bhutto PPP

But who will be the boss ? It is sure that by promoting recently closed allies at the top positions in the armed forces, he will keep his hand on the military.

But following the Pakistanese constitution, currently suspended since 1989, the political power boss of the country is the Prime minister.

Why to deny Sharif to return to Pakistan if it is for opening the way to Benazir Bhutto who has been twice dismissed for corruption including by a president belonging to her own party ?<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/10/12 22:48

13 OCTOBER 2007

ALL THAT FOR THAT ?

Last September, the Thai military took the power in a bloodless coup with the non-official approval of the Throne. It was supported in urban areas, but not by the countryside for which Thaksin did a lot.

The Army commander, general Sonthi is a muslim and was supposed to solve the southern Muslim insurrection. Nothing happened.

He was supposed to prove that Thaksin Shinawatra was corrupt. Very few has been provide justifying a coup d’état.

Worse, the current Prime Minister, the very respected retired general Surayud Chulanont, is himself accused of illegally acquiring land by the military established National Legislative Assembly.

All that makes the game for Thaksin whose partisans will challenge the upcoming elections under the People’s Power Party (PPP) after his Thai Rak Thai party has been forbidden.

Do we return to the 18 september 1999 situation after the 23 December elections ? Http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IJ13Ae03.html<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/10/13 21:30

15 OCTOBER 2007

HOW TO FORCE THE BURMANESE JUNTA TO GIVE IN ?

Because of the opposition of Russia, and mainly to China, the United Nations in lieue of condemning the military junta crackdown, just &quot;strongly&quot; deplored it.

On 15 October, the European Union has imposed an import embargo on timber, gems and precious metal from Burma.

If more countries were effectively doing that, firt US, Japan and mainly Asean partners, it could be efficient

But some countries are officially condemning, but in fact don't restrict their business activities, such as Singapore.<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/10/16 00:44

ON THE LESE MAJESTE IN THAILAND

Thailand has some of the most severe lese majeste laws in the world.

But, often, the governement used it against opponents or newspapers which critized him. One of the best exemple is the Thaksin action against the very respected Far Eastern Economic Review.

The king himself is worry of the abuses under his name. For instance, in his annual birthday speech in 2005, he has indicaded that lese majeste laws put him in a tough spot.
http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp; task=view&amp;id=757&amp;Itemid=31

24 OCTOBER 2007

HU JINTAO SUCCESSION

The list of the politburo standing committee, the only one giving a hierarchy order in the CCP show that, finely, Xi Jinping, the new boss of Shanghai, beat out the protégé of Hu Jintao. That show that Hu Jintao has not yet a free hand on the CCP.

He has been obliged to compromise with the Jiang Zemin Shanghai faction : the retirement of Zen Qinghong in exchange of Xi Jinping promotion. When somebody is in the SCPB, he normally never be downgrade.

That means that normally, Xi will be the next general secretary of the CCP. But, in fact, for Hu, Xi is not an unsuitable person. They together came from the Communist Youth League.

One thing, very expected fact is sure : Wen Jiabao will be reelected as Prime Minister, next year in March.

2 NOVEMBER 2007

MUSHARRAF DILEMMA

On one side, general Musharraf is criticized by the US for not doing enough in the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taleban

One the other side, almost the entire North West Frontier Province and Federallly Administred Tribal Areas have revolted against the state of Pakistan inn favor of the Taliban

It is not the interest of the US to press him too much because if he resigns it his not Benazir Buttho who could give them a more support against the Taliban.

It is under her government that this islamist movement has been created with the help of Pakistan intelligence services

10 NOVEMBER 2007

WHAT IS MUSHARRAF STRATEGY ?

I really don't understand what game is playing General Musharraf.

On 18th September he announced that if he was elected president, he would resign as army commander. But going to the election as an active officer is against the constitution.

The presidential election system is so that in any case he was sure to be reelected with zero risk.

So, after naming his military closed allies to the key posts in the Forces, why he did not resigned just before the 6 October presidential election ?

Yesterday, he made the same mistake, repeating that he will resign from Army if confirmed as reelected president.

But how can the new Supreme Court, named by him, decide against the constitution ? He has to resign before it give its decision.<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/11/10 17:22

18 NOVEMBER 2007

ON CHINA DEMAND TO THE US TO STOP ARMS SALES AND MILITARY COOPERATION WITH TAIWAN

On 13th November 2007, China urged USA to stop arms sale to Taiwan and any military cooperation with Taipei after the announcement of planning to sell 3 sets of Patriot II anti-missile equipment upgrade system.

After the Tian'anmen massacre, western nations took sanctions against China and had a more opened mind towars Taiwan. In these circonstances, France, for the first time dared to sale some navy ships and 60 Mirage 2000 to Taiwan.

China strongly reacted and closed the new established French general consulate in Guangzhou and did nothing against the same time announcement of US sale of 150 F-16 to Taiwan.

So why a such different attitude ? I remenber well because I was involved in that clash.

When on January 1st 1979, USA and China established formal diplomatic relations, it was decided that the US troops would leave the Taiwan territory in on eyear but that USA could continue to sail arms to Taiwan.

In a 1982 common declaration, USA was supposed to slowdown its sales to Taiwan in quantity and with no upgrated ones, that US never did.

The interest of the 13 November 2007 demand is that for the first time, China want a full halt to any sale and cooperation
http://www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?aid=13377

1 DECEMBER 2007

ON THE MILITARY PUTSCH IN MANILA

One more time Manila, on 29 November knew a new putsch attempt by an handle of soldiers

One more time the military din't follow the mutiners, but one more time the Philippines appear as an unstable country, plus the corruption problem. Two facts that are not encouraging the foreigners to invest there

I know that GMA administration has been plagued by scandals and that she was accused of fraud in her last election, without speaking of the campaign of assassination against leftist opponents, the numberous suspicions against her husband, and that het approval ratings in opinion polls are at record lows.

But I continue to think that, even if some filipino friends wrote me the contrary and justify the &quot;People war&quot;, that the military have not to interfere in the political life of a country.

The Philippines have democratic institutions, gained in dramatic circonstances. They have to be respected. Time will come for justice if justified
http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp; task=view&amp;id=907&amp;Itemid=31<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/12/01 16:52

DO WE HAVE TO CONDEMN CHEN SHUI-BIAN

During his last visit to China, French President Nicolas Sarkosy, condemned any move from the Taiwanese President for obtening a UN seat or organizing a rederendum on Taiwan independence.

The Taiwanese want to change the constitution, change the name of the country, the flag and passeports and also to join United Nations as a different country than China.

Why to oblige Taiwan to keep as a flag the one of a political party : the KMT ?

Why not to recognize that the Republic of China, only controls the Taiwan island and not all China as its name suggests ?

If we talk to China in favor of Taiwan, for instance about the hundred of missiles directed to it, Beijing answers that it is an internal affair. Why in this case play its game and to support its positions on Taiwan ?