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John wrote :

I often wonder what will be the next big movement in China. We read that there are so many local demonstrations going on, but we have yet to see protesters unite and organize themselves on a national level (and the government certainly do everything to stop them from doing so).

I believe we are bound to see that happen in China during the next decade or two. My guess is that it might be the end of the one-party regime of the Communist party.

So what will ignite the protest? My guess is the steadily increasing income difference between the rich and poor in China (and the urban coast and rural inland as well).

After the Tian'anmen massacre, a lot of China watchers (I was one of them) predicted that the China communist regime will be finish in the next ten years. That din't happended. So, now we have to be more carefull.

I propose to open a new forum on that very large and important subject.

For a change in China, we have to discuss on several topics about what can be the conditions that could provoque the fall of the Communist party.

For me the CCP could loose his power under several conditions.

1) Divisions inside the CCP

2) A large aspiration in the country for a more democratic system

3)His power challenged by some forces :

31) The rise of a bourgeoisie wanting to have a place in the decision making on economy throught polical ways.
32) Everywhere in the world, the young are the sprout of the Revolution. Is it the case in China today ?
33) In China there are a lot of demonstrations. Can they provoque an organized uprising ?
34) Could the rising difference between income has as a result a fight against the CCP¨?
35) Are there others big problems challenging the CCP power, such as ecology ?

I suggest to discuss this points one by one.

Today : Do you think that inside CCP there are strong fightings threathning its power ?. I wait for your point of you and will give you mine<br><br>Post edited by: Jacques, at: 2007/07/30 23:09