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Hello Jacques & Everybody,
Greetings from Shanghai ! I’m happy to share briefly some of my personal « Chinese » views on this topic.
To respect the moderator’s agenda, I’m putting my views point by point.
First let me point out that the teaching of Confucius has been, in general, the common denominator in Chinese thinking (all Chinese blood) until today. This Chinese cultural root, carried from generation to generation , will have a certain influence on the individual unless he or she is living in an environment without Chinese.
1) Divisions inside the CCP
There could be some divergence in views inside the CCP, but as a whole the Party is standing together. In early days, you might say that there was no opposition right. In some extent, yes. However, there are more and more group discussions before a policy made.
2) A large aspiration in the country for a more democratic system
History in China showed that major democratic movement are instigated by students. Today, students in China are more concerned about getting hired by a foreign firm, get higher pay and learn modern ideas.
I met a young IT engineer in Beijing a few years ago, he told me he didn’t understand why in Hong Kong people are still talking about “6-4” (this is the Chinese term for TianAnMen Event), he said we’ve forgotten already here, he added that he was one of those sitting for days there in 1989.
In the days of communism, people did talk about democracy. Today, Communism is only on the banner. China is now a socialist country, still rather highly centralized, particularly on the macro-economic level. This is necessary for a nation of that size, in order to keep the economy in good order.
Why I said rather highly centralized, coz the Central Government gives guidelines on economic indicators and legislation while local authorities do have their own practices, with Beijing keeping an eye on. This is how China make implementation regulations on laws passed. The Chinese are pragmatic people.
3) His power challenged by some forces:
31) rise of a middle class
The rise of a middle class shows that communism is gone. The CCP has just passed the Property Rights Law to gain their favor
32) The young are the sprout of the Revolution
The youngster today are so indulged in modern technology, multimedia, entertainment from the west. There is about 100 TV channels and you can see Beyonce, fashion show, beauty parades, all kind of advices on modern life (beauty, marriage, love affaire, interior decoration) Travel Log, soap series, reality TV, channel dedicated to securities & finance, TV series & films from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore. They are so absorbed by all these entertainments, I don’t think they have time in planning a Revolution…
33) Demonstrations can they provoke an organized uprising
As Jacques said, the demonstrations are rather for economic stake, not political
34) The increasing income gap can it be the cause of fight against CCP
The Macro-Economic control which is kept on 3 domains : Consumption, Investment, I/E is addressing this issues among others. The Macro-Economic measures are the main concerns of the Mainlander citizens today : Everybody is talking about CPI (even the non English Speaking people, as it’s much shorter than the Chinese translation…)
35) Ecology, is it a challenge to the CCP power
The Government is also discouraging Investment which is polluting or high energy consuming.
Most of the Chinese people are pragmatic, realistic and materialist, so are striving for a better life with more comfort. Of course, they also want freedom. They now have nearly all the civil freedom, except the universal voting right which they are not asking for so long as they don’t need it, simply because their life is much easier than before. The Mainlander nowadays are proud of themselves, being member of a nation emerging in the global economic scene, creating jobs. If “The Party” was the daily language, this has been gradually replaced by “The Government” or “The State”.
Communist Party is the governing party since 1949 and is a symbol of the Republic. It won’t disappear as such. Likewise, those who are speaking or acting against the Communist Party will be regarded as to betray his/her country. The point is PRC is no more a communist country, but socialist in reality. Of course people do adhere to the Communist Party, as it will convey them with advantages as a member of a Club. Therefore, we see most of the nominations in the Government are Communist Party Members but this is not a must.
As Deng Xiao Peng said, be it a black or a white cat, the one which can catch mouse is a good cat. This is the motto of the Government today
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