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#6206
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Rational Analysis about the Cyclone 4 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 19  



just look at traditional analysis about the cyclone


Cyclone poses political risks for junta


Analysts:
Traditional views frequently hold rulers responsible for natural conditions
Accepting international aid poses risks for junta, observers say
Cyclone disaster could lead to rise of moderate forces in Myanmar, analysts say



If Buddhist monks have mobilized to provide assistance,
as often happens in Asian countries,
the contrast in response will further work
to undermine whatever credibility the junta has left,"
said Ben Wisner, a disaster and urban affairs expert
at Oberlin University.

The need for a massive relief effort
pose a dilemma for the junta:
how much assistance to accept from abroad.

Allowing any major influx of foreigners
could carry risks for the military,
injecting unwanted outside influence
and giving the aid givers rather than the junta
credit for a recovery.

However, keeping out international aid
would focus blame squarely on the military
should it fail to restore peoples' livelihoods.

The most extreme change could come
within the military itself.

"Consequently the image of the state as a paternal figure
-- a heavy handed protector --
collapses spectacularly," he said.

Cases in recent history
where disasters helped blaze a trail
for reforms
include a 1985 earthquake in Mexico
that many believe marked the beginning
of the end for the long-ruling PRI party;

Nicaragua's 1972 earthquake,
which led to the decline of the dictator Somoza;
and a 1970 cyclone where Pakistan's
inadequate relief efforts contributed
to the breakaway of the country's east
to form Bangladesh.


very good idea!





http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/05/07/myanmar.politics.ap/ index.html



 
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#6212
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Re:Rational Analysis about the Cyclone 4 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 19  

the cyclone also more exposed
the junta's version of achilles heels
where weakness and death could take place.

the related article posted:

Why Myanmar's junta steals foreign aid- by Brian McCartan http://asiaobserver.multiply.com/journal/item/2

shows the junta's fear brought about by the cyclone

 
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#6240
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Re:Rational Analysis about the Cyclone 4 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 11  
NARGIS is my hero. NARGIS is my favorite cyclone. NARGIS path is so perfect that the untouchable (Burmese military) had not only been touch but also destroyed. NARGIS is the most deadliest cyclone in Asia's history. NARGIS stands in the book or records. NARGIS did where no nation or military do, not even the super power nation like USA. NARGIS will be remembered. NARGIS makes me see true justice with no mercy regardless of who or what is in its path (no discrimination). NARGIS makes me satisfied. I admire NARGIS speed, strength and choice of path and timing. NARGIS is my hero!
 
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Powerful, deadly with indiscriminational justice.
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