Re:Asian trade is a lifeline for Myanmar's general (1 viewing) (1) Guest
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TOPIC: Re:Asian trade is a lifeline for Myanmar's general
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linsi (User)
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Re:Asian trade is a lifeline for Myanmar's generals 10 Months ago
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warazein wrote:
QUOTE:
Dear Linsi,
Even though I'm now living in Australia I can't changed from being an Asian but to be frank, I still have a long way to go when it comes to being from just a 'nominal Buddhist' to 'engaged Buddhist' - be more compassionate towards fellow human beings.
I can relate to that again warazein, we both live in a more advanced society than our own,but we can do something, you can do something together with your fellow countrymen who live in affluent countries, you can keep in touch, talk, pray, plan and give your best now that Burma is in the most desperate conditions for help..
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linsi (User)
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Re:Asian trade is a lifeline for Myanmar's generals 10 Months ago
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some more updates about the topic:
The countries that matter more to Burma are India and Russia; both of whom have trading relations with the military regime.
Russia even plans to sell Burma a nuclear research reactor.
But it is Burma's biggest neighbour, China, that plays the most crucial role, and as a permanent member of the UN Security Council it can help to limit the relative isolation that the Rangoon regime faces.
Both China and Russia, for that matter, vetoed a UN Security Council resolution last January that was critical of Burma's rulers.
China has key strategic interests in the stability of Burma and accordingly strong ties with Rangoon.
This has prompted the Indian government to seek stronger ties of its own with Burma's military regime in order to counter-balance China's growing influence
It is Burma's energy resources - oil and off-shore gas fields - that make it such an attractive partner for Russian, Chinese, Indian and even South Korean firms.
The scramble for Burma's energy resources make it almost impossible to isolate the regime.
Indeed, over time, as US and European ties to Burma have declined, those of China, Russia and India have increased.
China, then, is very much the key player; but Beijing faces conflicting pressures.
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Re:Asian trade is a lifeline for Myanmar's general 9 Months, 4 Weeks ago
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Linsi, Asean is exactly the reason why the pro-democracy movement in Burma will fail.
Which Asean leader is so comfortable and secure as to launch out and strike a neighboring country?
Indonesia? the Philippines? India? Thailand?
Which one of these would want to take responsibility for the economic repatriation of Burma?
The truth is that none of these countries will lift a finger to help the Burmese.
If they did they would set a precedent for other countries to do the same to them at some time in the future.
Indonesia, the Philippines and to a lesser extent India and Thailand all have varying degrees of human rights abuse allegations and corruption charges leveled against them from time to time.
The Asean way is to talk with a hand over the eyes and ears. Hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil.
Above everything else, make sure no one loses face.
The most reliant on Burma from a trade point is India and China. These two, along with French company Total, are the largest buyers of Burmese energy products.
Which one of these do you think is going to stop buying when they have such a burgeoning demand for the products at home?
Lets have a look at a few other facts. The Burmese military is estimated at 488,000 – the 12th largest in the world.
Assuming that any Asean government had the will to intervene, who could mount such a military campaign?
Indonesia only has a front line armed force of around 318,000, Thailand is marginally smaller at 314,000 while the Philippines is considerably smaller at 106,000.
The logical answer is China, with her standing military force of 2,255,000, or India with 1,325,000 front line troops.
Indonesia's military hardware is ancient and it's military not equipped or trained to be an invading (liberating) force.
Thailand is unlikely to be interested because of her own domestic problems.
India is not a candidate because of her own problems with Pakistan.
China is unlikely to be willing to go to war so close to the Olympics.
The West can jump up and down all it likes. Impose as many sanctions, trade embargoes, travel restrictions that it can think of and none of it will effect the Burmese military junta.
They will remain comfortable living the life they are used to. It's only the people who will suffer, as was the case in Iraq and South Africa when the West did the same thing.
The truth is that there simply isn't any willpower amongst Asean leaders to do anything, or any incentive to upset the status quo.
For these reasons, the pro-democracy push in Burma we are witnessing now will fail. The only questions that remains to be answered is how many people will be killed in the misguided belief that anyone cares enough to help them.
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linsi (User)
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Re:Asian trade is a lifeline for Myanmar's general 9 Months, 4 Weeks ago
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photo_journ wrote:
QUOTE:
Linsi, Asean is exactly the reason why the pro-democracy movement in Burma will fail.
...........
For these reasons, the pro-democracy push in Burma we are witnessing now will fail. The only questions that remains to be answered is how many people will be killed in the misguided belief that anyone cares enough to help them.
It may not succeed in the first instance, or even the second, but, eventually, it will triumph.
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In Myanmar, as with most repressive regimes, this is how it ends. A popular uprising, fuelled by years of pent-up anger, proves an irresistible force. It may not succeed in the first instance, or even the second, but, eventually, it will triumph.
Myanmar's ruling military junta has but two alternatives: cling to power in the meantime by brutally stamping out this uprising, or acknowledge that its time is up and accede to negotiations that will lead to the restoration of democracy.
A virtually powerless world has, unfortunately, less and less reason to believe the latter course is viewed as an option.
( this is an editorial in nzherald.co.nz which i totally agree )
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