TWO weeks into Pakistan's post-election scenario the hope that the legitimately elected parliamentary forces will gradually emerge as responsible and ascendant forces in Pakistan's power construct is still intact.


The media, reflecting the electorate's demand that the elected parties must now manage the affairs of the state and of society in a cooperative and competent manner, is closely monitoring inter-party negotiations between the three federal level coalition partners, the PPP, the PMLN and the ANP. While the partisan and the cynics are categorical about an inevitable fallout between the PPP and the PMLN, others believe the two leaderships are clear about the need to work together.

However, a key factor that will impact on the future of the three party alliance and on the post-election political state of Pakistan is the Musharraf factor. The obvious fact is that President Musharraf, despite much political opposition, is fighting back. There is credit to be given for fighting back, for being patriotic, for being bold, for having the courage of conviction, of standing by friends, etc. So, Musharraf deserves credit for this as a person and in an individual capacity all these traits would win him admiration. Not when he heads the state and is the symbol, at least constitutionally, of a non partisan and credible head of the state.

However, as the head of the state President Musharraf has much to account for. His political experiment was a resounding failure. His actions have divided not united the nation, his actions have flowed from reaction not reflection, for his survival as president he mutilated the constitution, sent the judiciary packing. As head of the state in his battle with the chief justice he opted for conduct unbecoming.

Musharraf put the judges and lawyers under house arrest. The recent protests against the house arrest of the CJP's children including an eight year old underscore the poverty of wisdom and credibility in the functioning of the state of Pakistan. It is unprecedented in Pakistan's history and maybe even in recent world history that the head of state would stoop to issue a signed charge sheet against a chief justice in the form of a letter and send it off proudly to the international media and lawyers, etc. The president then called him the 'scum of the earth' in his interview with a British celebrity.

Every step he took beginning March 9 onwards essentially began to throw up weaknesses of the power construct he and his allies had authored. The 'power construct' over the years drew its strength from many missing factors that are crucial for successfully managing state, society and politics. The absent elements were supremacy of the constitution, prevalence of rule of law, the Executive's confidence in an independent judiciary and the presence of popular political leadership.

Pakistan's 2007 democratic journey achieved two milestones. One, peoples' appreciation of the importance of rule of law and of constitutional democracy and two, the birth of a democratic deterrence against the exercise of unaccountable state and political power. Yet these milestones have not been able to guarantee the expected post election stability.

The Musharraf factor is a key element in the current political fluidity which can descend into political instability. If news reports must be believed, the president is tampering with the political outcome. He is trying to resuscitate his party that faced a huge electoral defeat. He has held a set of meetings with the PMLQ leadership. They insist they will support him and he insists on throwing them the lifeline.

Clearly buoyed by whatever transpired at their meetings with the president a reinvigorated PMLQ is now trying to muster a pro-Musharraf alliance. The only man within PMLQ who has the guts to say that the sword of 58(2)b PMLQ in the president's hand must go is Mushahid Hussain. The rest despite being critical of President Musharraf play along and unfortunately Mushahid Hussain too despite his bold words earlier and even now, stays on with the party that has not gone beyond the shadow of the president.

The president also seems to be undermining the normal political process by giving political support from his camp to elected MPAs from the Punjab. According to a March 4 Daily Times report, the president told a group of visiting PMLQ MPAs not to worry about funds for the completion of their projects because he will provide them with funds. Does he want to strengthen them in their prospective battle against Punjab's ruling party, the PMLN? Wisdom demands that the president stay aloof from all political parties but he has chosen not to. Staying aloof was exactly the position he should have proactively taken, hence his spokesman's statement that the president meets whoever wishes to meet him is a rather bland retort.

President Musharraf has decided to not stay above the fray. Admittedly he did say after the election that he is willing to work with all the parties. But with the PMLN's rejection of the president as a constitutionally and legally legitimate president, he has allowed himself the licence to jump into the political fray again. PMLN's position reflects their hard stance towards a man who had personally wronged Nawaz Sharif as late as his humiliating September 10 forced exit from Pakistan. Musharraf too was wronged to some extent as Nawaz attempted on October 12 to stall the landing of his plane.

However, all those are bygones and are open to personal interpretations. Where we stand today is a point of near collective wisdom that two key controversial issues need to be settled by the parliament within the parameters of the constitution and of legality. Both related to the president; the legitimacy of the presidential election. The president himself had clearly stated that he would take a fresh vote of confidence from the new parliament. Now, in response to a changed political scene with an uncertain vote his message through his spokesman is that he is elected for five years and will not allow any anarchy over the matter.

The other issue regarding the restoration of the judiciary too will have to be settled by the parliament. Instead of bowing before the wisdom of the elected parliament the president continues to reiterate through his spokesman that the pre November judiciary can never be restored.

Musharraf's future must be decided by the parliament and the restored judiciary, rather than street power, is what many advocate. Any move that can lead to confrontation and the eventual weakening of the elected forces must be avoided. Yet with the president 's personal activism on issues ranging from the legitimacy of his presidency and the restoration of the judiciary, he is contributing to the distortion of Pakistan's post election scenario. This will also inevitably lead to the strengthening the street factor in the days to come. And with an elected government in power police violence will not be at the president's disposal to be used freely against demonstrators.

Pakistan's problems are galloping ahead, not least of all the all encompassing problem of terrorism-struck internal security. Yet the bulk of the political strength finds itself stuck in the business of battling the factor that represents vice-regal institutions. President Musharraf has not humbly accepted the verdict of the people. He still seems to be playing his political cards. Such play guarantees continued power battles when the only battle that is worth fighting in Pakistan is the battle for internal security and end to the growing scourge of terrorism.